Home Prices in the Age of COVID-19



Although we won't know for a few more months, my prediction is home prices may have held up during this pandemic. According to CoreLogic home prices continue to hold up all the way through March. The study measures the month of March, which, if you live in Los Angeles County, was the beginning of the Safer at Home order. So, it'll be interesting to see what the data shows for April and May, which, again, my prediction is that prices remain relatively unchanged.





Currently,


CoreLogic states:

"National home prices increased 4.5% year over year in March"


CoreLogic predicts:

"Home prices are forecast to increase by 0.5% from March 2020 to March 2021"


As I mentioned above, it will be interesting to see the data for April and May when they are released, but my by experience, the home value for the City of Los Angeles, will continue to remain strong even during this pandemic. Unlike the financial crisis, mortgage default is currently not an issue. But we will have to revisit this again to see what the April and May data shows. One thing that will continue is the tight housing stock.


Below are two graphs that show the decline in mortgage defaults.

Mortgage default rate - CoreLogic



With that said, those believing COVID will turn the real estate market into a buyer's market may not come to fruition.


Based on Redfin's data, the average home in Los Angeles city stayed on the market for 44 days. Homes still receive multiple offers and sell for 0.1% over list price. Home sales price dropped by a measly 0.27% since last year. But this is also the entire city of Los Angeles. Depending on your neighborhood, this data may be different.

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